The
key to low-inflation growth over
the long term is raising productivity by, among other things, improving
the technology of production and getting prices - that is, production
incentives - right.
An
open trade and investment regime, where any barriers to the
movement of goods, services or assets are price-related and transparent,
contributes to both of these goals.
An
unstable macroeconomic environment jeopardizes a country's
balance of payments and trade. Domestic imbalances caused by weak
fiscal or monetary controls, for example, quickly show up in the external
accounts as trade imbalances and foreign financial obligations including
debt. When this happens, in developed or developing countries, local
producers often accuse foreigners - whose share of the domestic market
rises rapidly - of unfair trade practices. Lenders may be criticized
for the terms of credit or foreign investors for aggressive acquisition
behaviour.
If
weak monetary controls accompany spending (fiscal) imbalances,
there will be a sharp rise in domestic inflation. At this point, the
real exchange rate should be allowed to weaken, to compensate for
the difference in inflation between domestic and foreign markets.
But governments are often under pressure to maintain the nominal exchange
rate - that is, allow an appreciation in the real exchange rate -
in order to maintain consumers' 'buying power' in the face of domestic
inflation. External balances deteriorate further when this happens
and the 'crisis' begins to feed on itself.