Demographic consequences of choosing male children
I’ve previously noted the size and slant of demographic changes that are sweeping North Asia. This weekend’s NY Times Review of Books includes a review of a controversial book about the potential legacy of China’s ‘bare branches’.
If these young men cannot find wives or jobs or become a viable part of their societies, the book argues, they can pose a threat to internal stability and make governments more likely to create military campaigns to absorb and occupy these youths. (NY Times)
Critics of this line of argument point out that the impacts of demographic trends do not emerge clear cut from the historical record; there are many compounding factors. It’s a very long reach from the gender imbalance to some of its supposed consequences (e.g. jihadism, or perhaps crusadism).
Will a low female-male ratio lead to an improvement or a deterioration in the social status of women? Scarcity seems to suggest the former. Does a preponderance of males imply polyandry? Or is migration more likely? Is there any reason to think that war is a more likely result than an increase in sex tourism?
Population growth (from Maddison “The World Economy: 1 – 2001”)
| Population growth | ||
| Year | China | West Europe |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59.6 | 24.7 |
| 1000 | 59.0 | 25.4 |
| 1300 | 100.0 | 58.4 |
| 1400 | 72.0 | 41.5 |
| 1500 | 103.0 | 57.3 |
| 1820 | 381.0 | 133.0 |
| 1913 | 437.1 | 261.0 |
| 1950 | 546.8 | 304.9 |
| 2001 | 1,275.4 | 392.1 |
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